Corruption has taken over the political agenda of several countries, large and small, in Latin America. From the Rio Grande down to the south of the continent, the last decades have been marked more by money than by principles. Presidents prosecuted, fugitives, arrested, serving sentences. And no end in sight, with some accusations being true, others not so much. That is why nobody is surprised by the disenchantment, in general, of citizens with politicians, and the overall loss of confidence in democracy.
In Ecuador, a new soap opera – or drama – has just begun. We do not know when it will end or how. In a multi-ethnic country, where more than 10 languages are spoken, with the US dollar as national currency and deeply divided between the jungle and the highlands (between “monos y serranos”, as they identify themselves). With a little more than 250,000 square kilometers — about the size of the U.S state of Colorado — and almost 19 million inhabitants.
As of late, President Guillermo Lasso, who completed two years on May 24, has made use (for the first time ever) of a constitutional amendment introduced in 2008 by former president Rafael Correa. Correa, today a fugitive from justice, created this mechanism which allows Lasso to dissolve the National Assembly, controlled by the opposition, which was attempting to remove him from office, and call for general elections. The mechanism is called the “cross death”, due to the mutual annulment of the presidential and legislative power, since both must go to elections. And it could also be qualified as a sort of “presidential suicide”, since the current opposition will probably keep the parliamentary majority, while Lasso has decided not to run for reelection.
The basis of the cross death is Constitutional article 148, which states:
The President or President of the Republic may dissolve the National Assembly when, in his or her judgment, it has arrogated functions that are not constitutionally within its competence, prior favorable opinion of the Constitutional Court; or if it repeatedly and unjustifiably obstructs the execution of the National Development Plan, or due to serious political crisis and internal commotion.
Although opposition sectors claimed circumstances did not warrant the cross death, the Constitution Court ruled against them, allowing the measure to go into force. From his redoubt in Belgium, Correa also objected to the cross death, claiming there was no internal commotion, only the threat of impeachment for Lasso. He took the opportunity, however, to rally his unconditional supporters, estimated at around 20% of voters, to point out that it was necessary to take advantage of the opportunity to “send Lasso and his parliamentarians home”.
In only 11 years, between 1996 and 2007, Ecuador has had seven presidents of the republic. Therefore, former President Rafael Correa, who had managed to grant stability to the country over two constitutional periods (2007-2017), modified the Constitution that had come into force in 2008. By introducing this escape valve, he prevented the military from knocking on the door of the presidential palace in the face of social mobilizations, strikes and street violence that characterized part of the twentieth century.
Ecuador, the country located in the “middle of the world”, was home to leaders and caudillos such as General Eloy Alfaro, twice president and father of the liberal revolution, who inspired the guerrilla movement of the 80’s, “Alfaro Vive, carajo”. And to José María Velasco Ibarra, famous for his oratorial skills, who was elected no less than five times with his famous phrase “Give me a balcony in every city, and I will be President again”.
Ecuador has also been a pioneer in indigenist matters, with the classic novel “Huasipungo”, by Jorge Icaza published in the 30’s, which shook the conscience of Latin America; as well as home to the famous paintings of master Oswaldo Guayasamín (1919-1999). Relations with its southern neighbor, Peru, have not been easy for Ecuador: they fought the last war in South America – the “Condor War” – between January and February 1995, with around 500 dead and where, as in Magical Realism, both countries declared themselves victors.
This is the first time since the current Constitution came into force, that the mechanism of dissolution of the legislative and presidential power is used. President Lasso will govern until December by decree, without opposition, while the Constitutional Court will be his overseer that will be able to approve or reject the projects of the executive until the new Parliament takes office. It is expected to function as a counterweight to the immense power with which the current president will be able to govern. We will witness a political and legal exercise that has rarely been seen in Latin America. Ecuador will put its constitutional and political strengths to the test. With the campaign already underway, most political observers initially believed Correa’s political party, “Citizens Revolution”, has the best chances of winning. However, recent political polls cast that outcome in doubt.
The political picture in Ecuador has changed dramatically in recent years. In last February’s elections to renew mayors and regional prefectures, President Lasso’s government suffered a quantitative and symbolic defeat by losing the cities of Quito and Guayaquil, among many others. His party, CREO (Creando Oportunidades) which in 2019 still controlled 32 mayorships, was reduced to 10. The populist Social Christian Party, which supports business interests, was defeated in the Guayaquil mayoral race for the first time 30 years by the Citizens Revolution candidate.
Surely, former President Rafael Correa, from distant Europe, follows events minute by minute and with the hope of victory for his party. But he has no possibility for himself, personally. At least for now, since it means returning to the political arena due to the eight-year sentence that weighs on him for corruption and bribery during the years of his presidency.
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Fernando Ayala is an economist who has held posts as ambassador, Deputy Director of Strategic Affairs and Undersecretary of Defense in Chile.
Inflation in Ecuador remains below three percent while there is virtually no unemployment. This comes as no surprise to me as I anticipated this when making my decision to retire here ten years ago. A consequence is the significant increase in my Social Security check in January will mean an actual increase in my buying power instead of a retrograde as it is for recipients living in the United States.
I suspected the argument for people changing the world’s climate was a hoax when the media made the big switch from the hysteria about the coming new Ice Age to a new hysteria about the end of the world from over heating. The switch was very abrupt. Then the proposed solutions had almost nothing to do with the claimed problem. All they did was increase government control over our lives at all levels and increase our taxes.
Though both the traditional stock market and Bitcoin are down these days many financiers and investors are of the opinion that some crypto currencies and in particular Bitcoin are the future. So-called hard money like the U.S. dollar has existed in digital form for some time and this is used to transfer upwards of $5 trillion dollars every day rather than transport actual Greenbacks. Even the U.S. Treasury has acknowledged that a significant percentage of dollars put to use are never actually printed. Though the government denies this is in fact digital money that is what it really is as it only exists in electronic form.
When the Covid pandemic first struck a very good friend retired here in Cuenca, Ecuador, told me his concerns and fears at what was about to happen. A former Naval Officer and medical doctor who specialized in holistic medicine before retiring to Ecuador, he published an article of concern and prediction in our leading expat website, Cuenca Highlife. He was vilified by many for what he wrote. It turns out that this article, published in May, 2020, was prophetic. Read it and remember this was in the early weeks of the pandemic.
I’ve not written for some time. I can only blame laziness. But it has also been a very, very busy time. I have said from time to time that I never needed a social calendar until I retired. Just wait, you’ll see.
Time for some Pros and Cons on moving to and living in Cuenca, Ecuador where I’ve lived these past eight years. I’ve told friends for some months now that once the worse restrictions of this so-called pandemic have passed there will be a surge of expats into Cuenca. My reasons for thinking this is that many Americans will find they are no longer employable for any number of reasons. They will be faced with a retirement earlier than they expected and when they run the numbers they will see they cannot afford to live in the U.S. except as a pauper. So here are the Pros and Cons of Cuenca.
The agenda to drive universal vaccinations of the populace has forced the medical community and politicians into a corner when it comes to the question of natural immunity. They can’t say it’s not a reasonable question, nor can they say it’s already been answered properly. They just say this organization or that doctor or some study shows that even those with natural immunity must still get vaccinated. When pressed, they invoke the logical fallacy known as begging the question; they use the affirmative answer to the question of whether people who have recovered from Covid-19 should get vaccinated as the evidence that they should. The numbers don’t back up this claim. In fact, those who have recovered from Covid have far greater immunity than those who are simply vaccinated. Perhaps a quarter of the U.S. population has already had Covid and doesn’t require the jab. So the logical question is: Why insist on it? The answer, of course, is population control and maintaining a perceived state of fear to advance a political agenda. Read it all here. 
With my third entry in this ongoing series let me go to the beginning. Why become an expat? Why leave the country of your birth and nationality to live among strangers in a very different culture, perhaps one with earthquakes and volcanoes? My primary reason for moving abroad was that I always wanted to. I grew up reading Burroughs, Doyle [his lost world stories, not Sherlock Holmes], and later Graham Greene whose books were largely about expats getting into trouble. My goal almost from the first was to retire to another country. As I grew older and saw how narrow the lives of most of the elderly were, primarily from lack of money, I became convinced I didn’t want that for myself.